Citigroup Analysts Project Contraction for Macau Gaming Industry in Second Quarter 2026

Analysts at Citigroup have issued projections showing a 7 percent year-on-year drop in Macau’s industry EBITDA for the second quarter of 2026, bringing the figure to roughly US$1.92 billion, and this level marks the lowest point recorded since the third quarter of 2024. The forecast incorporates the combined effects of the football World Cup and extremely unfavorable hold rates across the sector.

Key Financial Metrics in the Forecast

Gross gaming revenue is expected to reach MOP$61.0 billion during the same period, representing the lowest quarterly total since the first quarter of 2025, while EBITDA margins are projected to contract by 1.5 percentage points to approximately 25.8 percent. These figures emerge from detailed modeling that accounts for seasonal event overlaps and variance in table game outcomes.

Data from the analysis indicates that negative market sentiment surrounding these headwinds has already been incorporated into current valuations, leaving limited additional downside once the quarter concludes. The same report highlights that operators have maintained disciplined cost structures despite the revenue pressure, which helps contain the margin erosion to the stated 1.5 percentage points.

Anticipated Recovery Path

Despite the near-term contraction, Citigroup anticipates a pronounced rebound across the third and fourth quarters of 2026, supported by a robust calendar of events that includes multiple large-scale exhibitions and entertainment programs. These activities are positioned to restore foot traffic and stabilize hold percentages as the World Cup distraction fades.

Industry participants have observed similar patterns in prior cycles where major sporting tournaments temporarily diverted attention from integrated resorts, only for activity to normalize once the events concluded. The current forecast applies this historical rhythm to the specific 2026 timeline, projecting sequential improvement once the second-quarter results are finalized.

Hold-rate volatility remains a recurring variable in table-game heavy markets such as Macau, and the “extremely unfavorable” characterization in the forecast reflects outcomes that fall well below long-term averages during the measured period. Such deviations can compound when paired with lower overall volumes, producing the combined EBITDA impact detailed in the report.

Market Implications and Forward Indicators

The projection arrives in July 2026, giving operators and investors several months to adjust positioning ahead of the actual results release. Analysts emphasize that the negative factors are largely event-driven and therefore finite, which supports the expectation of a swift return to growth once the calendar shifts.

Further details on the specific events underpinning the third- and fourth-quarter recovery can be found in the full Citigroup forecast document, which outlines both the downside risks for Q2 and the catalysts expected to drive subsequent quarters.

Conclusion

The Citigroup analysis supplies a clear quantitative framework for understanding the anticipated second-quarter 2026 performance across Macau’s casino operators, centered on the US$1.92 billion EBITDA target and the associated revenue and margin figures. While the World Cup and hold-rate pressures create near-term headwinds, the same assessment points to measurable recovery momentum later in the year through an active events schedule. Market participants will continue to monitor these indicators as the quarter progresses.